Cardano (ADA) price has surged 16% in the past 24 hours, trading at $0.80 ADA/USDT as of February 11, 2025. The surge is mainly fueled by Grayscale’s filing for a spot Cardano ETF, a first for the U.S. market.
The ETF, if approved, would allow institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to ADA without directly holding the asset, potentially increasing liquidity and adoption. Grayscale’s filing mentions Coinbase Custody Trust Company as the custodian and BNY Mellon Asset Servicing as the administrator, signaling a structured approach to securing and managing the fund’s assets.
The price surge reflects broader market sentiment, as ADA had been under pressure recently, dropping to a low of $0.50 earlier in February—a 60% decline from its cycle high. Despite this, ADA remains 74% below its all-time high of over $3.
Technical analysis suggests that breaking above $0.85 could confirm a bullish reversal, with some analysts projecting a potential rise to $1.75 if momentum continues. However, regulatory challenges persist, as the SEC has previously classified Cardano as a security in enforcement actions, which could complicate the ETF’s approval process. Still, recent SEC acknowledgment of similar filings for other altcoins like Solana has sparked speculation of a softening stance.
Market data shows ADA’s trading volume up by 90% to $1.53 billion, reflecting renewed investor confidence. There is also growing institutional interest, with Cardano’s inclusion in Grayscale’s other funds and its $1.6 trillion in on-chain transactions over the past year.
The broader context points to Cardano’s scalability and decentralized design as key factors driving institutional appeal, though competition from platforms like Ethereum and Solana remains a challenge.
Cardano is one of the leading layer-1 blockchains renowned for its emphasis on scalability, sustainability, and security.
This price momentum reflects an accumulation of factors, including growing network activity, new development milestones, and a renewed focus on Cardano’s expanding ecosystem. However, while the rally has driven substantial gains, the looming threat of profit-taking could temper ADA’s upward trajectory in the near term. For many holders, Cardano’s recent surge has brought portfolios back into profitability, potentially triggering sell pressure as traders aim to lock in these gains.
The following analysis dives into Cardano’s on-chain metrics to assess how its rally has influenced holder sentiment, explores the potential impact of profit-taking on ADA’s price, and evaluates whether Cardano could continue its climb. With ADA’s technical and on-chain indicators flashing mixed signals, the path forward may be as volatile as it is promising, making this a critical juncture for the token’s performance heading into the end of the year.
Cardano’s Gains Put Holders in Profit Territory
Cardano’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric that reflects the overall profitability of ADA holders, has consistently shown positive figures over the past week. Data from Santiment indicates that Cardano’s 30-day and 90-day MVRV ratios are 26% and 44%, respectively, underscoring the strong profitability of ADA holders.
When an asset’s MVRV ratio is in positive territory, it suggests the asset is potentially overvalued, with its current market price exceeding the average purchase price. This can trigger selling pressure, as holders may be inclined to lock in gains, leading to a potential price pullback. The positive MVRV ratios highlight strong profits among Cardano holders, but they also suggest an increased likelihood of volatility if investors choose to cash out, creating a short-term price correction for ADA.
Further reinforcing the trend, daily ADA transactions have recently yielded more gains than losses. According to Gate.io, Cardano’s daily transaction volume in profit surged over the past week, reaching 5 billion ADA as of November 13. For every ADA transaction incurring a loss, approximately 1.04 transactions ended with a profit, suggesting that profitable transactions dominate current market activity.
Will Profit-Taking Stall the Rally?
IntoTheBlock data reveals that 53% of all Cardano addresses are currently “in the money,” meaning these holders are at a profit if they sell at the current market price. This equates to around 2.3 million profitable addresses. Conversely, 41.3% of Cardano addresses, or 1.9 million holders, are “out of the money,” sitting on unrealized losses.
If a significant number of holders begin taking profits, this could exert downward pressure on ADA’s price, potentially curbing its rally before reaching the $1 mark. A pullback could see ADA testing support at $0.64, with a further drop to $0.67 if this support level does not hold.
However, if holders resist selling and instead continue to accumulate, this could fuel further upside momentum. In such a scenario, ADA may break above $0.90, setting the stage for a price predicted to climb toward its 2024 high of $0.81 ADA/USDT.
Cardano (ADA) Outlook for 2025
In 2024, Cardano (ADA) has experienced significant developments that have shaped its trajectory in the cryptocurrency landscape.
Technological Advancements and Upgrades
A pivotal milestone was the implementation of the Chang hard fork in September, marking Cardano’s transition into the Conway ledger era. This upgrade introduced enhanced governance features, enabling ADA holders to elect representatives and participate more actively in the network’s decision-making processes. The successful deployment of the Chang hard fork signified a substantial move towards decentralized governance within the Cardano ecosystem.
Market Performance and Ecosystem Growth
Cardano’s market performance has been notable, with ADA’s price experiencing significant fluctuations. In November, ADA surged by over 72% in a week, reaching a seven-month high. This rally was influenced by various factors, including increased adoption and strategic partnerships.
The ecosystem has also expanded, with the introduction of new dApps and collaborations aimed at enhancing Cardano’s utility and user base. For instance, the relisting of ADA on platforms like Robinhood has provided additional market access for retail investors, contributing to increased trading volume and liquidity.
Charles Hoskinson’s Engagement with U.S. Government and Policy Initiatives
A significant development in 2024 has been Charles Hoskinson’s proactive engagement with U.S. government officials to influence cryptocurrency policy. Following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, Hoskinson announced plans to collaborate with the incoming administration to develop clear regulatory frameworks for the cryptocurrency industry. He stated, “I’m going to be spending quite a bit of time working with lawmakers in Washington DC to help foster and facilitate with other key leaders in the industry with the crypto policy.”
Hoskinson’s company, Input Output Global (IOG), is establishing a dedicated policy division focused on creating comprehensive legislative frameworks that incorporate elements from existing acts such as the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) and the Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA). This initiative underscores a commitment to engaging with policymakers to advance the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies in the United States.
Overall, 2024 has been a transformative year for Cardano, marked by technological progress, market growth, and active participation in shaping the future of cryptocurrency regulation. Many people want to buy ADA when the price is low in 2025 but don’t know how to trade. You can directly visit Gate.io’s “How to Buy ADA” page to find out. The clear purchase steps and simple operations help novices easily learn and buy ADA tokens.
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