A short-term risk, but why you should consider HODLing SOL

• Solana is flexing serious muscle this month, surging 15% and stealing the spotlight as a standout performer.
• SOL’s march toward $200 is looking less like speculation and more like structural progression.

Solana’s [SOL] dry run to $95 on the 8th of April, following a sharp 64% quarterly drawdown, was a textbook case of aggressive “dip-buying”. In other words, an early signal that buyers were ready to step in at value zones. 

Fast forward to mid-Q2, and SOL has clawed its way back to price levels seen in early March, showing the market is now in a net profit state. 

Despite this rebound, a full-scale pullback has yet to materialize. Instead, price remains range-bound below the $150 overhead supply wall.

Typically, this kind of sideways action, especially when profits are on the table, screams conviction. Market participants appear more inclined toward capturing future upside than realizing short-term gains. 

In this context, Solana’s behavioral resilience may be laying the foundation for a $200 breakout to emerge as the new base case.

Resilience in the face of resistance

Solana’s 15% weekly rally might hit a speed bump in the coming days. Why? First, SOL is charging toward the $150 supply wall, a critical liquidity resistance area.

Typically, when assets get close to a ceiling, portfolio reshuffles and profit-taking are par for the course.

And the data backs it up. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remains elevated above 1, indicating that market participants are realizing profits. 

Concurrently, NRPL (Net Realized Profit and Loss) turned green following SOL’s breakout above the $130 resistance level on the 12th of April, showing that the market is now, on average, in the money.

Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, Pump.fun is back in the mix, sending another 105,233 SOL ($591 million at an average price of $185) to Kraken.

Of this, 264,373 SOL has already been executed in spot sales around the $158 level, netting approximately $41.64 million in USDC.

Yet, despite elevated realized profits and systematic offloading by a major entity, Solana’s price structure remains stable. 

This implies underlying bid support and suggests ongoing distribution is being absorbed efficiently. Hence, a signal of structural bullishness.

How market psychology is powering Solana’s long-term case

Despite the short-term dip, Solana’s long-term potential makes its current valuation an attractive dip-buying opportunity. Market participants are validating this outlook.

On the 2nd of May, three newly created wallets withdrew 145,000 SOL for $21.8 million from Kraken, with an average entry price around $150. 

This suggests the influx of fresh capital into the network, signaling potential FOMO-driven accumulation. Interestingly, long-term holders are also active in this phase.

Solana’s HODLer Net Position Change has shifted to positive territory following a major distribution phase during SOL’s 65% quarterly correction to $95. 

Source: Glassnode

The positive shift in HODLer Net Position Change, paired with accumulation near the $150 level, reflects growing conviction among long-term holders. It’s a sign the market sees current prices not as a ceiling—but a launchpad.

This behavior acts as a psychological springboard, reinforcing the $200 breakout as a base case scenario.

Put simply, the recent dip looks less like a reversal and more like a strategic entry point for investors chasing long-term alpha.